Can Europe Build a Credible Nuclear Deterrent Without the U.S.?
Europe has long depended on the United States’ nuclear umbrella through NATO's nuclear-sharing arrangement, but with increasing geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. commitment, the question arises: Can Europe develop an independent nuclear deterrent?
Current Nuclear Capabilities in Europe
At present, only two European countries possess nuclear weapons:
- France – Has an independent nuclear force, including submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and air-launched cruise missiles.
- United Kingdom – Has nuclear-armed submarines but relies on U.S.-supplied Trident missiles and support.
Additionally, some NATO countries (Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Turkey) participate in the NATO nuclear-sharing program, where U.S. nuclear weapons are stationed in Europe but remain under American control.
Why Europe Could Build an Independent Nuclear Deterrent
1. Technological & Industrial Capability
- European nations like France, Germany, and the UK have advanced military-industrial complexes.
- France already has nuclear-capable submarines, aircraft, and warheads.
- The UK, while reliant on U.S. missiles, has the technical expertise to develop indigenous capabilities if needed.
2. Economic Strength
- The European Union (EU) collectively has the world’s third-largest economy, meaning it could fund nuclear expansion.
- While expensive, a European-led nuclear deterrent could be financed through joint defense initiatives.
3. Existing Military Cooperation
- The European Defence Fund (EDF) and PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) show increasing military integration.
- A European-led nuclear force could be structured similarly, potentially led by France and supported by Germany, Italy, and others.
Challenges to an Independent European Nuclear Deterrent
1. Political Divisions
- Germany and many EU countries are strongly anti-nuclear. Convincing them to fund or host nuclear weapons would be difficult.
- NATO members rely on U.S. deterrence and may be reluctant to shift away.
- The EU lacks a unified military command, making coordination complex.
2. Dependence on U.S. Technology
- The UK’s Trident missiles are U.S.-made and require American maintenance.
- NATO’s nuclear-sharing relies entirely on U.S. weapons and logistics.
- Developing new European missile systems would take decades and massive funding.
3. Legal and Treaty Constraints
- Many European nations have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), limiting nuclear expansion.
- The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), supported by many EU countries, opposes nuclear arms.
4. Cost and Timeframe
- A new nuclear program would require decades to develop credible long-range nuclear capabilities.
- France’s nuclear program took decades and billions of euros—scaling it up for all of Europe would be even costlier.
Potential Paths Forward
If Europe were to establish its own nuclear deterrent, it could take several approaches:
1. Strengthening France’s Nuclear Role
- France could expand its nuclear umbrella to cover more of Europe.
- Germany, Italy, and other EU nations could financially support French nuclear expansion in return for protection.
2. Creating a Joint European Nuclear Force
- A European Nuclear Command could be formed, pooling resources from multiple countries.
- This force could be based on French leadership, with financial and technological support from Germany and others.
3. Greater NATO Autonomy in Nuclear Policy
- Europe could push for greater control over NATO’s nuclear strategy, while still benefiting from U.S. support.
- This would reduce dependence on American decision-making but maintain a U.S. security guarantee.
Can Europe Do It?
While Europe has the economic and technological capability to build a nuclear deterrent, the biggest hurdles are political divisions, legal constraints, and reliance on U.S. technology.
In the short term, a fully independent European nuclear force is unlikely due to cost and opposition from some EU nations. However, a stronger role for France and greater European cooperation in nuclear policy could serve as a middle ground.